Tuesday, September 25, 2012

OSINT- 5 GREAT COMPUTER HACKING ONLINE COURSES

Note: OSINT News maintains an affiliate relationship with Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble, and Linkshare. Ten percent of our ad revenue is donated to the Association For Intelligence Officers (AFIO). We offer you well-researched resources with the caption "Learn more". Enjoy!

Hacking is legal when you use it to secure your own network. It's called "Ethical Hacking" or "White Hat" hacking and uses various common and readily available hacking tools and techniques to audit your network so you can locate and close security holes. Whether you're running a small home network, are an OSINT-gatherer like myself, or you're an enterprise network administrator, we recommend five courses to teach you how to better protect your system against those who wish to gain unauthorized access, and also to teach you skills in computer hacking for your OSINT-gathering effectiveness.

Learn more! Enroll online- Course No. 1
Course No. 1 OSINT News recommends the Education To Go course on Ethical Hacking (above photo). They are the industry leader in online learning and partnerships with over 1,800 colleges and universities to provide high-quality courses.

Hackers know the complex method of electronic breaking and entering. In this Ed2Go course you'll learn the terms and programming behind the interaction between hardware and software when communicating through a network. You'll follow packets of data from one point to another through an entire network, and find out where the flaws exist for data loss and security breaches. You'll discover the role of the seven layers of the OSI model, and the dependencies of hardware and software interaction through packet transmission. And you'll find out how private data can quickly become public knowledge.

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Hackers are costing businesses around the globe several billions of dollars every year. Don't become part of that sad statistic. Sooner or later, you know that somebody is going to try and break into your network. Why not learn how hackers think so you can harden your defenses against them?

You can also learn hacking skills to enhance your OSINT-gathering capabilities...without breaking the law! Many OSINT-gatherers feel the life-long skill of computer hacking will enhance their effectiveness. Well, they're right. If you want to take formal coursework in computer hacking, remember that there are quite a few different types of ethical hacker courses out there. They fall into several basic categories. According to one expert, "Penetration Testing" is the most common and potentially important course you should take. It involves "ethical hacking."

Course No. 2: OSINT News also recommends the Ethical Hacking Training Program from Innobuzz

There are also classes in "reverse engineering of software", especially malicious software such as viruses, Trojans, and other malware. Some ethical hacker courses are also applicable to other types of careers, such as forensics classes that teach students about finding and constructing metadata from various types of computer files.

A number of schools teach a myriad of different ethical hacker courses that teach you how to hack into computer systems and networks in a way that is responsible and applicable to beneficial hacking by “white hat” hackers. For example, one course teaches "Penetration Testing", where you are trained how to look for weaknesses in a computer system or network and then launch a simulated attack against that system to exploit those weaknesses.

The INNOBUZZ Eithical Hacking teachers have served companies like COLT Telecom, Fidelity Investment, Tata Group, DLF, Unitech, Exchange4media, Arya Ventures, IIT Delhi, Fiat, IBM, and SpiceJet. His most popular information security and hacking training goes in-depth into the techniques used by malicious, "Black Hat" hackers with attention-getting lectures and hands-on lab exercises. True, you can use the hacking skills for malicious purposes, but his classes emphasize hacking techniques to perform a white-hat, ethical hack, on your own organization. In sum, when you take this formal coursework, you finish with the ability to quantitatively assess and measure threats to information assets and discover where your organization is most vulnerable to hacking, in real time, throughout this network security training course.

Course No. 3: Black Hat hackers are always changing their tactics to get one step ahead of the good guys and OSINT News also recommends InfoSec Institute. You will learn how to protect your organization's networks and systems and, in particular, we recommend the 5-day long, Expert Penetration Testing Course. This particular course by InfoSec Institute notes, "Modern networks and systems are fully patched, hardened from attack, and armored to the hilt with expensive security gear --- but the bad guys still get in on a daily basis! How do they do this? Why is there a news release every day of another Fortune 500 company hacked, more government secrets lost to the adversary?"

InfoSec Institute also offers an Advanced Ethical Hacking Boot Camp, where you learn how to successfully attack fully patched and hardened systems, how to circumvent common security controls, and how to get to confidential data. You take this knowledge back to your organization and can then formulate a way to defend against these sophisticated attacks. 

Enroll online- Course No. 4
Course No. 4: OSINT News recommends the eLearnSecurity Certified Professional Penetration Tester (eCPPT) is an Ethical Hacking and Penetration Testing Professional certification offered by eLearnSecurity. (left photo) Here's why this particular program impressed us- the eCPPT exam requires you to carry out a real penetration test against a target and to build a penetration testing report. The eCPPT is currently the only security certification requiring the penetration of real targets and the production of a penetration testing report.The eCPPT exam can be taken within 120 days from the date of enrollment in the Penetration Testing Course - Professional. Penetration Testing Course is the distance learning course delivered in e-learning format dubbed as "What CEH should have been".
  

Enroll online- Course No. 5
Course No. 5: OSINT News recommends obtaining Certified Ethical Hacker (CEH) credentials through this program: Preparing for the Certified Ethical Hacker (CEH) Exam Video Mentor. (left photo) This online course is mostly visual and goes step-by-step for six hours through personal video mentoring and discussion by Shon Harris, CISSP, MCSE. Harris is   President of Logical Security, a security consultant, a former engineer in the US Air Force Information Warfare unit, a security instructor for clients such as the U.S. Department of Defense and National Security Agency (NSA), and author of the world's best-selling CISSP book, CISSP All-in-One Exam Guide, now in its Fourth Edition.

She is recognized by Information Security Magazine as one xof the field's top 25 women, and specializes in helping clients develop secure enterprise infrastructures, security governance, and enterprise wide risk management and control programs. She was contributing author to Hacker's Challenge and Gray Hat Hacking.


This DVD package (upper left photo) is part of the new Shon Harris Security Series, products that will include the right resource for every CEH candidate, regardless of your learning style. In addition to this DVD, they will deliver CertPrepOnline, FlashCardOnline, Online Course, and Cert Snack offerings. It's the best of classroom training for a fraction of the price.
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There are many Online Learn Ethical Hacking Programs available out there. Make sure the training courses are geared to your sophistication and knowledge level. If you are a neophyte in this field, call them on the cell phone and talk with them, personally. They will steer you to an appropriate entry-level course. For beginners...start at the beginning! Sign up for an Ethical Hacking Training Program that covers the basics in each area of Information Security. Remember, learning goes from the known to the unknown, especially in regards to Ethical Hacking.
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Unfortunately, there are many unscrupulous hackers out there. They conduct malicious network intrusions with their cutting-edge techniques. their demented minds target systems, defeat production schemes, write malicious codes, exploit flaws in Windows and Linux systems, and send out malware and rootkits using honeypots and Sandboxes... the list of their endless efforts to disrupt the WWW is overwhelming. With the threats of cyber terrorism and corporate espionage increasing, the need for trained network security professionals continues to grow. OSINT News hopes these five recommended resources will help you in developing penetration-testing tools and techniques to protect your computer network, and that of your employer's as well- whether it be a business or member of the Intelligence Community. Good luck in your endeaver to become an ethical hackers and security tester! 



 

Want a great site to define what a Hacker is? click HACKER.

Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO). A portion (10%) of this site's ad revenues is donated to the AFIO. The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. OSINT News is always looking for different perspectives regarding the Intelligence Community- got a thought, article or comment you'd like to submit? Contact us on the SECURE CONTACT FORM

Monday, September 24, 2012

AFGHAN GREEN-ON-BLUE VIOLENCE EXPOSED

 Note: OSINT News maintains an affiliate relationship with Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble, and Linkshare. Ten percent of our ad revenue is donated to the Association For Intelligence Officers (AFIO). We offer you well-researched resources with the caption "Learn more". Enjoy!
 
OSINT News believes that green-on-blue violence, the attacks on U.S. and allied forces by their Afghan partners, is the most serious tactical challenge to the NATO coalition since the war in Afghanistan began almost 11 years ago. Though tragic in their own right, the strategic effect of these killings is far greater than the effects of soldiers and Marines killed fighting face-to-face with the Taliban.
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We frequently review SAIR, the South Asian Intelligence Review. SAIR conducts weekly assessments and analysis of terrorist activities throughout the south Asian regions. This recent report is called The Future at Risk, written by Ajit Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management.
 
On September 16, 2012, four US troopers were killed by an Afghan Policeman at a remote checkpoint in the Mizan District of Zabul Province. A day earlier, an Afghan Policeman killed two UK soldiers in Helmand Province. In both incidents, the attackers were killed in return of fire. In the latest such attack, on September 17, an Afghan soldier opened fire on an International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) vehicle in Helmand, injuring at least one US soldier. The attacker was captured immediately thereafter. A total of 112,579 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-led ISAF personnel from 50 countries are currently deployed across Afghanistan. 
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According to data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management, at least 116 ISAF personnel have been killed in 69 "Green on Blue" or "insider attack" incidents since January 1, 2009 (all data till September 21, 2012). More worryingly, there has been a steep rise in such incidents over the recent past. There were just six "Green on Blue" incidents, and 10 ISAF fatalities, in 2009. In 2010, six incidents occurred, with 20 fatalities. In 2011, the number rose to 21 incidents and 35 ISAF deaths. 2012 has already recorded 36 such incidents and 51 ISAF fatalities. 31 attackers have also been killed in these attacks since 2009.
Of 67 "Green on Blue" attacks recorded, 15 were major (resulting in three or more fatalities). The most prominent among these included:            
  • September 16, 2012: An Afghan Policeman opened fire in the Mizan District of Zabul Province, killing four US soldiers. The attacker was killed in return fire. The Taliban later claimed that the attack had been carried out with the aid of seven Afghan Policemen who were retaliating against the film "Innocence of Muslims."
  • August 28, 2012: An Afghan soldier shot and killed three Australian soldiers in an attack at a base in the Baluchi Valley of Uruzgan Province. Two more Australian soldiers were wounded in the attack. On September 16, the Taliban put up a picture of the attacker, Sergeant Hikmatullah, a recent recruit, on Twitter. Hikmatullah is yet to be captured.  
  • April 16, 2011: An Afghan soldier blew himself up at Forward Operating Base Gamberi in Laghman Province, killing five NATO troops and four Afghan soldiers. Another eight Afghans were wounded, including four interpreters.
  • November 29, 2010: An Afghan Border Police trooper killed six ISAF soldiers during a training mission in Pachir Agam District of Nangarhar Province. The attacker was killed in the incident.
  • November 4, 2009: An Afghan Policeman named Gulbuddin shot and killed three UK Grenadier Guards and two members of the UK Royal Military Police at a checkpoint in the Nad-e-Ali District of Helmand Province. The attacker escaped on a motorcycle.
  • November 4, 2009: An Afghan Policeman named Gulbuddin shot and killed three UK Grenadier Guards and two members of the UK Royal Military Police at a checkpoint in the Nad-e-Ali District of Helmand Province. The attacker escaped on a motorcycle.
  • August 10, 2012: Three US soldiers were killed in an attack by an Afghan Policeman in Sangin District in Helmand Province. The attacker fled after the attack.
  • January 20, 2012: An Afghan soldier killed four French soldiers and wounded another 15 at their base in Kapisa Province. One of the injured soldiers died later. The attacker was apprehended.
  • April 27, 2011: An Afghan Air Force pilot opened fire inside a NATO military base in Kabul, killing eight NATO troops and a contractor. The shooter jumped out of a window after the attack, injuring his leg, and was captured.
The term "Green on Blue" originated from NATO symbolism which uses blue to identify 'friendly' forces, red for 'enemy' and green for 'neutral' forces. Such attacks are not limited to killing foreigners alone. At least 53 Afghan National Security Force [ANSF, comprising the Afghan National Army (ANA), Afghan Local Police (ALP), Afghan Border Police (ABP), Afghan Uniformed Police (AUP), Afghan Air Force (AAF), etc.] personnel have been killed in 35 separate attacks in 2012 [these attacks are distinct from the 35 "Green on Blue" attacks in 2012 above]
Analysts and authorities have put forward various grounds for the increasing trend in "Green on Blue" attacks, including personal enmity, cultural differences, violent society, an increasing distrust towards ISAF, the segregation at military bases, stress levels within the ANSF, and the self-radicalization of a section within ANSF, among others. Talking of personal enmity and cultural difference, Major Hasanzada of the ANA argued, "I understand why our men are shooting US and NATO soldiers. I too have been personally hurt by the way American forces behave towards my soldiers, our villagers, our religion and culture. Too many of them are racist, arrogant, and simply don't respect us." Alarmed by the role of cultural differences in such attacks, the Afghan Defense Ministry, in a pamphlet, noted: 
 
"Even minor cultural differences can create misunderstandings and rows... Coalition troops may ask about the women in your family. Do not take offence; they just want friendly relations with you.. If you or your coalition partner gets angry, stay away from each other until the situation becomes normal." 
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Indeed, the new strategy of "mentoring" which was replaced by "partnering" after the 2009 surge of US troops in 2009, increased the mixing of ISAF and ANSF personnel, 24 hours a day, escalating cultural clashes.

These various factors would certainly play a role in the increasing violence between Afghan and foreign Forces, as well as within the ANSF. Nevertheless, the most prominent factor is likely the direct role of the Taliban, who see "Green on Blue" attacks as an integral element of their strategy of dominance in the wake of the US drawdown.
 
To offset the decline in foreign troops, there was surge in recruitment into ANSF, with 10,000 to 15,000 new recruits being brought into the Afghan Forces each month, in order to reach the target strength of 352,000 by October 2012. This has led to poor screening processes and the entry of a large number of Taliban-backed rogue elements, who hope to capture control of the Force in the aftermath of the ISAF withdrawal. President Hamid Karzai's spokesman Aimal Faizi thus noted, "The speedy process was the result of the need that we had to build up our security forces to the number that was required. But now we are close to that number so, in a way, we are not in a hurry... The insider attacks are a reason to also bring down this number (of new recruits being vetted each month) - to take more measures and be more careful in recruiting individuals."

Mullah Omar, the leader of Taliban, in a statement released on August 16, 2012, has openly acknowledged the strategy of infiltration:

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He also said that the Taliban had opened a "Call and Guidance, Luring and Integration" department, "with branches ... now operational all over the country," to encourage defections in the ANSF. Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Zahir Azimi, on September 5, 2012, noted, "Hundreds [of ANSF personnel] were sacked or detained after showing links with insurgents. In some cases we had evidence against them; in others we were simply suspicious." The investigation, he added, was the result of the probe ordered by President Karzai at the start of 2012, following the spike in insider attacks in 2011.
 
Initially, the US downplayed the attacks as "sporadic incidents', but there is now evident concern at the highest level. President Obama, on August 20, 2012, stressed, "We are deeply concerned about this, from top to bottom", and citing reason for the spike said, "We are transitioning to Afghan security, and for us to train them effectively we are in much closer contact - our troops are in much closer contact with Afghan troops on an ongoing basis." Similarly, US Army General Martin Dempsey stated, on September 16, 2012, "We're all seized with (the) problem. You can't whitewash it. We have to get on top of this. It is a very serious threat to the campaign. Something has to change."
 
Crucially, on August 22, 2012, President Hamid Karzai's office, without directly naming Pakistan, asserted that foreign spy agencies were behind most of these attacks. Karzai's spokesman, Aimal Faizi, observed, "Based on interrogations of attackers who had been detained, and other evidence like letters and records of phone calls, the Government had concluded that the main culprits in the killings had been put in place by intelligence services from neighboring countries. There is no doubt there is infiltration."  
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Meanwhile, a number of corrective measures have beened or are under consideration, including the designation of 'Guardian Angels', improving vetting processes for new recruits, introducing barriers between NATO and the ANSF, suspending training of ANSF, introducing interview procedures for ANSF personnel returning from leave, improving training for counterintelligence agents, establishing an anonymous reporting system, and establishing a joint investigation commission when insider threats occur. Some of these measures are already being assessed as 'not feasible' and even 'counter-productive'.
 
The designation of "Guardian Angels" - a trooper who will keep his weapon locked and loaded at all times, ready to protect his comrades, during training of ANSF troopers, is expected to increase the sense of security among foreign personnel. However, improving the vetting process has been declared unfeasible. "We realistically don't have the time to study the case of each applicant. We look them over, have short interviews, and make background checks. But who knows what is really in the young man's heart and soul?" argues an unnamed Afghan Army Colonel. Anthony H. Cordesman, a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted, "There are no vetting procedures that can eliminate green-blue attacks in a country where there are no real records. Vetting relies heavily on tribal and local sources, who care more about family and local politics, and where interviews and polygraphs present major language problems."
 
More worryingly, introducing barriers between NATO forces and the ANSF recruits they are training, is thought to be suicidal. John R. Allen, ISAF commander in Afghanistan, noted, "At this particular moment I don't believe that we need to contemplate reducing our contact with the Afghans. The closer the relationship with them-indeed, the more we can foster a relationship of brotherhood - the more secure we are."  

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On September 2, 2012, the ISAF announced that its Special Forces had suspended training for ANSF, in order to recheck the vetting status of ANSF troops. However, the most desperate measure was taken on September 19, 2012, when the ISAF announced that joint patrols and advisory work with ANSF would henceforth only be conducted at the battalion level and above, while co-operation with units smaller than the 800-strong battalions would be "evaluated on a case-by-case basis" and approved by ISAF's Regional Commanders. Soon after, the Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahed claimed, "This is the result of the mujahedeen's operations and tactics that forced the enemy to abandon their plans. This is an achievement for the mujaheddin who have managed to create mistrust among the enemy forces and, God willing, this is the start of their overall defeat in Afghanistan."
 
The Taliban, of course, is celebrating the discomfiture of their enemies. An unnamed senior Taliban commander in Kunduz Province observed:

These [insider] attacks are perhaps our most effective tool to create a golden gap between the Americans and the Afghans. We are aware that the Afghan security forces are getting stronger, so this is best way for us to weaken and divide them from the Americans. We are working like termites, eating into this already rotten wooden structure.
 
Afghanistan clearly stands at a crossroads, and the future is deeply uncertain. The worst-case scenario would see the ANSF simply peter out in the face of a hostile Taliban takeover after the US 'withdrawal' in 2014, with some troops defecting in strength to the Taliban, while others prefer to 'melt away' into villages and towns to avoid a confrontation. Such a situation would make the presence of the residual ISAF troops untenable, with a stronger and bolder Taliban, backed by ISAF-trained ex-ANSF troopers, targeting them. It is projected that the US envisages a residual Force of Advisors, Technical Support personnel and Special Forces at a strength of 25,000 troops in Afghanistan after 2014, at least up to 2024.
 
Under all circumstances, the crisis has deepened. The 'surge' that was aimed at beating back the Taliban to give the Afghan Government and its Security Forces the time and space to secure a firm grip on the affairs of the country, has ended without achieving its objectives. Though there has been a sharp decline in militancy related fatalities, at 3,952 in 2012, (till September 21) as compared to a total of 8,942 in 2011, the geographical spread of the Taliban influence has widened, even as their strikes become more audacious. On September 14, 2012, for instance, 15 Taliban militants, dressed in US Army uniforms, attacked Camp Bastion in Helmand Province, killing two US Marines and injuring another nine. Though all but one of the insurgents were killed in retaliatory gunfire, while one was captured, the attackers, destroyed six AV-8B Harrier fighter jets, worth about USD 30 million each, and damaged another two. They also damaged six hangars and destroyed three refueling stations. This was termed the biggest single loss in terms of military equipment for the ISAF since the beginning of the conflict.
 
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OSINT News believes the stakes in Afghanistan have been raised by these green-on-blue murders of ISAF troops. NATO's Comprehensive Strategic Political Military Plan and President Obama's strategy to disrupt, dismantle, and eventually defeat al Qaeda and prevent their return to Afghanistan are in jeopardy. A stable Afghanistan is the one factor which will prevent the Taliban from being able gain significant influence. If the Afghanistan government fails, then the country will, once again, become a base for terrorism in Afghanistan and central Asia.

And, if the Afghanistan government fails, the U.S. fails in its Herculean effort to stabilize and strengthen the Afghan economic, social, political and security environment in order to defeat popular support for the Taliban, al Qaeda and other extremist forces in the region. Since 2001, the US spent over $52 billion in this all-reaching effort and over half has gone to the training and equipping of Afghan forces. The rest went to development and humanitarian activities from infrastructure to private sector support, governance and democratization efforts, and counter-narcotics programs. The U.S. military has transformed since President Bush declared victory in Iraq. It has shifted from "shock and awe" to "stability operations" where they focus on nation-building, counterinsurgency and the rebuilding of failed states...kind of like social workers with guns. 

As we attempt to build nations, will we be weakening our own? We shall see.
 
Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO). A portion (10%) of this site's ad revenues is donated to the AFIO. The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. OSINT News is always looking for different perspectives regarding the Intelligence Community- got a thought, article or comment you'd like to submit? Contact us on the SECURE CONTACT FORM

Friday, September 14, 2012

RADICAL MUSLIMS AND RIGHT-WING CHRISTIANS ARE KILLING US

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OSINT News came across an article written by Emad El Din Adeeb in the Asharq Alawsat, a leading Arabic daily newspaper. We read his writings often in our osint research and consider him to be a reliable source to interpret the inner workings of the Arab world and their perception of the US. Recently, he discussed the assassination of the US ambassador and three other US embassy staff in Benghazi, and defined it as a terrible crime and a political disaster by any standard, not just in terms of US – Libyan relations, but Washington’s relations throughout the entire region.
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Emad El Din Adeeb posed an excellent question to his Arabic readers. He wondered how the White House, State Department and Pentagon are interpreting this tragic event- Are there questions among them being raised whether this is the thanks and gratitude the US deserves from a country and people they helped politically, financially, militarily and security-wise? He brought up the point that, until now, his country did not know the true identity of who carried out this heinous crime, but he added that fingers are being pointed at forces comprised of remnants of the Gaddafi regime.

He also reports that there is unconfirmed theory that a section of the al Qaeda organization, which last year transferred from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Yemen, is now bedded down in three other territories- Libya, Syria and the Sinai Peninsula.


It is not uncommon to see the black al Qaeda banner being raised in Yemen or Cairo’s Tahrir Square. It is no coincidence that the assassination of the US ambassador in Benghazi and the huge protests outside the American embassy in Cairo took place on the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. It is also no surprise that the al Qaeda flag was raised outside the walls of the US embassy last week.

Emad El Din Adeeb also stated that “It is no longer surprising to see, on our television screens, trucks equipped with machine guns manned by mask figures brandishing the black al Qaeda banner”. 

 
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OSINT News believes al Qaeda is not on the road to defeat, but is strengthening more  now than ever before. It still maintains a central organization with a unified command in xxcharge of violence and terrorist operations throughout the world. There has been a huge shift following the killing of its infamous leader Osama Bin Laden. Today, under Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda now follows different approaches based on establishing branches wherever crises are taking place, thus securing a wide-spread international presence. According to Emad El Din Adeeb, this new al Qaeda policy of establishing branches and units across the region will make it difficult for armies, regimes and conventional intelligence services to counter them.

He further wrote in the Asharq Alawsat, “This situation will create a state of turmoil and chaos that cannot be controlled, not just during the era of the Arab Spring, but following this. The current assassination attempts against Yemeni officials following regime change, the Benghazi operation following the collapse of the Gaddafi regime and the protests outside of the US embassy after Mursi came to power, represent evidence that al Qaeda lives on as a new chapter in the post-Arab Spring era”. 

OSINT News agrees with US policy makers inside the  Obama administration and within the Intelligence Community (IC) who believe the attack on the US Libyan embassy and the recent killings were purposeful, coordinated and pre-planned... by the new al Qaeda that Emad El Din Adeeb describes. We also believe that the ultra-right religious factions in the US may result in many more American deaths throughout the Middle East. The ridiculous video which spawned this recent chaos by a right-wing evangelical christian isn't the first time such chaos was instigated. Most Christians do not hate Muslims. However, America's new right-wing, evangelical "Christians" are bigoted and prejudiced enough to do so. It's unfortunate that the masses of Muslims and Christians cannot chastise the tiny percentage of their peers who decide to become terrorists and bigots. Perhaps our Intelligence Community (IC) and State Department can join hands and, in some way, afford them avenues to do so?

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OSINT News brings up a bigoted right-wing Christian who mended his ways. In the 1980s, a man named Siljander was a conservative republican from Michigan who entered Congress roughly the same time Newt Gingrich and Tom Delay did. He was prepared to mold the world into his own fundamental right-wing religious mindset. A staunch member of the Religious Right, he even walked out of the National Prayer Breakfast when a speaker quoted from the Qur'an.

After he lost his reelection (Thank goodness), he scrutinized the Bible, searching for passages that said it was his mission 
to convert others in order to save them from eternal damnation. He came up with zilch and couldn't even find a passage saying that Jesus set out to form a new religion. This discovery was the first step on a spiritual and political journey that started with an in-depth linguistic study of the Bible and led to the discovery that Christianity and Islam share many base words and concepts.
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Ironically, Siljander became United Nations ambassador and  began sharing his insights on the common grounds shared by both Islam and Christianity. He traveled to unfriendly places around the globe, like Libya, Sudan, Pakistan, and India and tried to forge relationships with both heads of state and religious leaders. Is it possible that this man's quest could be a way to  radically shift the present religious landscape and help heal the rift between Islam and the West? Could we have global summits between Muslim and Christian leaders to ascertain where the agree and disagree?


OSINT News researched the book Because They Hate. It is not advertised on this post, but we recommend you obtain it through other retail outlets. It describes Brigitte Gabriel, who 
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lost her childhood to militant Islam. After reading the book, it appears militant Islam will never sit down and reconcile ideological differences with western religious leaders, diplomats, Christians, NGOs...whoever.

Because They Hate describes the true nature of radical Islam and warns that the US is threatened by fundamentalist Islamic theology in the same way Lebanon was. Radical Islam will stop at nothing short of domination of all non-Muslim countries. Gabriel saw this mission start in Lebanon and remains outspoken about it. She sees in the West a lack of understanding and a blatant ignorance of the ways and thinking of the Middle East and points out mistakes the West has made in consistently underestimating the single-mindedness with which fundamentalist Islam has pursued its goals over the past thirty years.


Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO). A portion (10%) of this site's ad revenues is donated to the AFIO. The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. OSINT News is always looking for different perspectives regarding the Intelligence Community- got a thought, article or comment you'd like to submit? Contact us on the SECURE CONTACT FORM

Thursday, September 13, 2012

NORTH KOREA MAY DETONATE NUCLEAR BOMB DURING MIDEAST CHAOS


Note: OSINT News maintains an affiliate relationship with Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble, and Linkshare. Ten percent of our ad revenue is donated to the Association For Intelligence Officers (AFIO). We offer you well-researched resources with the caption "Learn more". Enjoy!

Two credible experts believe North Korea may be preparing for another nuclear test. Stanford nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker and Frank Pabian, a geospatial information analyst at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, believe the Hermit Kingdom is planning a third nuclear test soon. They used seismic information, previous reporting, commercial satellite imagery, Google Earth tools and geo-positioning to refine the locations of North Korea's two nuclear tests and provide an improved basis for estimating their explosion yields. Both men are suspicious of a recently completed tunnel in the vicinity and say it is capable of accommodating another test, based on comparisons with features of the two test tunnels previously used by North Korea and publicly available data on the Pakistani test program. Hecker and Pabian published their report in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and also participated in an interview with Stanford University News. They urge politicians in Washington and Beijing to make sure that the political price of conducting another test for North Korea remains high.
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Both men saw similarities in North Korean and Pakistani testing practices and led them to speculate that Pyongyang may test both plutonium and highly enriched uranium devices simultaneously. Strong technical and military forces drive Pyongyang to conduct additional tests, but so far it appears to have concluded that the political price of another test is too high. Washington and Beijing should make sure that it stays high. After all, there is much osint that suggests North Korea is changing. Farmers now give nearly 1/3 of their harvests to sell at market prices and collective farms are being reorganized into family farms and propaganda is being put out espousing the glories of change in the country's new young leader, Kim Jong Un.

OSINT News believes that North Korea may be more cooperative with the rest of the world, both economically and militarily (knock on wood). On May 25, 2009, they detonated a nuclear bomb underground. This was its second nuclear test, the first test having taken place in October 2006. Following the nuclear test, Pyongyang also conducted several missile tests. The test was nearly universally condemned by the international community. Following the test, the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1874 condemning the test and tightening sanctions on the country. It is widely believed that the test was conducted as a result of a succession crisis in the country. After Kim Jong-Il suffered a stroke in the summer of 2008, arrangements were made for his third son, Kim Jong-un, to take power upon his death. It is believed the North Koreans conducted the nuclear test to show that, even in a time of possible weakness, it did not intend to give up its nuclear weapons program.
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But, has their rigid belief system changed? Is it possible that this heretofore rigidly planned economy may be changing socially, economically and militarily? Could it be that this Stalinist state may be in cautious reform, and may refrain from further nuclear tests? Could Kim Jong Un be starting economic reforms, as China's market reforms 30 years ago?

Shortly after its failed April 13 rocket launch, North Korea was widely expected to conduct its third underground nuclear test. Such a test would have fit the pattern of the first two nuclear tests, both of which followed failed rocket launches and international condemnation. And Pyongyang has compelling technical, military, and political reasons to conduct a third nuclear test that would demonstrate it can miniaturize nuclear warheads to fit on a missile, making its nuclear arsenal more threatening.

Siegfried Hecker and Frank Pabian believe the first two North Korean tests used plutonium as the fissile material. Without at least one more successful plutonium test, it is unlikely that Pyongyang could have confidence in a miniaturized plutonium design. The country has a very small plutonium stockpile, sufficient for only four to eight bombs, but it may be willing to sacrifice some material to gain additional data to augment information already obtained from the previous two tests.
All the same, it appears that plutonium is a dead end for Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal because it shut down and has not restarted its five megawatt electric plutonium production reactor. Although the two experts have seen no direct evidence of a highly enriched uranium (HEU) production program in North Korea, judging from the available evidence, they believe the next bomb test will be based on HEU, or multiple bombs will be tested simultaneously, using both HEU and plutonium.
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Interestingly, the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center is North Korea's major nuclear facility, operating its first nuclear reactors. It is located in the county of Nyŏngbyŏn in North Pyongan province, 103 km north of Pyongyang. The center produced the fissile material for North Korea's nuclear weapon tests in 2006 and 2009 and the 5 MWe experimental reactor was built in 1980. The reactor first went critical in August 1985 and operated intermittently until 1994 when it was shut down in accordance with the U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework. Following the breakdown of the Agreed Framework in 2002, the operation restarted in February 2003, creating plutonium within its fuel load at a rate of about 5 kg per year. The reactor fuel was replaced between April and June 2005. The spent nuclear fuel has been reprocessing with an estimated yield of about 45 kg of plutonium metal, some of which was used for the nuclear weapons involved in the 2006 and 2009 North Korean nuclear tests.
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Whether and when North Korea conducts another nuclear test will depend on how high a political cost Pyongyang is willing to bear in the midst of her economic and social transformation. Beijing has continued to expand aid and trade
with North Korea, but has also applied significant diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang not to test. Moscow recently forgave nearly $11 billion in North Korean debt, signed a new border treaty, and is still in the game for building a gas pipeline going through the North to South Korea, but Russia is also on record as opposing continued nuclear testing. In addition, North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, has shown signs of striking off in his own direction, possibly putting rehabilitation of the civilian economy ahead of enhanced military strength.


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Even so, and although Pyongyang announced in June that it has no plans to test at this time, Siegfried Hecker and Frank Pabian said in their report that they cannot rule out the possibility that the technological and military benefits may sway Pyongyang to test again. Satellite imagery shows significant new activity at what has been identified as a likely third nuclear testing tunnel, and both men found it important to re-examine North Korea's past nuclear tests to learn about its future nuclear test capabilities.
North Korea's previous nuclear tests. The seismic signal of North Korea's first underground nuclear test, which took place on October 9, 2006, had a teleseismic body wave magnitude (the most common scale used for measuring the strength of seismic events from a distance) of 4.3. Using analytic methods based on arrival times of seismic waves at monitoring stations outside of North Korea, the location of the event was determined to be a highlands area north of the village of Punggye-ri, in North Hamgyong Province, in the northeastern corner of the country. While it has been reported that the North Koreans were expecting an effective yield of 4 kilotons, estimates on the explosion yield of that test generally fall below 1 kiloton.

The second test, with a magnitude of 4.7, occurred on May 25, 2009 in the immediate vicinity of the first. Despite Korean Central News Agency reports that the device yield was "Hiroshima sized" -- that is, on the order of 12 to 20 kilotons -- an official US intelligence estimate placed the yield as low as "roughly two kilotons." A 2011 estimate by Los Alamos National Laboratory researchers, incorporating available seismic data and known geology but using a different analytic model, placed the minimal effective yield of the second test at about 5.7 kilotons.

A recent National Research Council report on nuclear testing points out that such discrepancies are not uncommon because no single relationship exists between teleseismic body wave magnitude and the yield of a nuclear test. Referring to the two North Korean tests, the report concludes that the relative locations and the ratio of their yields can be determined more accurately than their absolute locations and absolute yields. And since the seismic waveforms of the two tests are similar, the yield of the 2009 test should be scaled up by a factor of 4 to 6 from the roughly one kiloton of the 2006 test.

Locating the epicenter of a nuclear test with high confidence to within less than a few kilometers in a little-known geologic area not previously used for nuclear testing is very difficult because of insufficient information about specific subsurface geology and its potential effects on the precise timing of the transmission of regional and teleseismic signals. As the National Research Council report points out, however, if multiple nuclear tests occur in the same region, then relative methods of detection, location, discrimination, and yield estimation can be brought to bear.

Only 22 seismic stations of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization's International Monitoring System network
registered the 2006 nuclear test, but 18 more stations were online to help register the larger 2009 event. In the immediate region, seven seismic stations in Japan, one in China, and one in South Korea recorded the latter test.
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In 2010, researcher John R. Murphy and colleagues at the Science Applications International Corporation used recorded regional and teleseismic data from the International Monitoring System to locate the 2006 and 2009 North Korean underground tests relative to
one another. Their method provides the precise "relative" location of the two tests, but does not necessarily fix either one accurately in its real-world, "absolute" location. They integrated these locations with topographic data and satellite imagery to define what they considered reasonable and accurate absolute locations for the two tests. In 2011, these researchers revised their estimates by moving the relative location plot about 720 meters to the south-southeast as shown in the photo at the top of this post.A decade before being proclaimed part of the axis of evil, North Korea raised alarms in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo as the pace of its clandestine nuclear weapons program mounted. When confronted by evidence of its deception in 1993, Pyongyang abruptly announced its intention to become the first nation ever to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, defying its earlier commitments to submit its nuclear activities to full international inspections. U.S. intelligence had revealed evidence of a robust plutonium production program. Unconstrained, North Koreas nuclear factory would soon be capable of building about thirty Nagasaki-sized nuclear weapons annually. The resulting arsenal would directly threaten the security of the United States and its allies, while tempting cash-starved North Korea to export its deadly wares to Americas most bitter adversaries. In Going Critical, three former U.S. officials who played key roles in the nuclear crisis trace the intense efforts that led North Korea to freezeand pledge ultimately to dismantleits dangerous plutonium production program under international inspection, while the storm clouds of a second Korean War gathered. Drawing on international government documents, memoranda, cables, and notes, the authors chronicle the complex web of diplomacy from Seoul, Tokyo, and Beijing to Geneva, Moscow, and Vienna and back againthat led to the negotiation of the 1994 Agreed Framework intended to resolve this nuclear standoff. They also explore the challenge of weaving together the military, economic, and diplomatic instruments employed to persuade North Korea to accept significant constraints on its nuclear activities, while deterring ratherthan provoking a violent North Korean response. Some ten years after these intense negotiations, the Agreed Framework lies abandoned. North Korea claims to possess some nuclear weapons, while threatening to produce even more. The story of the 1994 confrontation provides important lessons for the United States as it grapples once again with a nuclear crisis on a peninsula that half a century ago claimed more than 50,000 American lives and today bristles with arms along the last frontier of the cold war: the De-Militarized Zone separating North and South Korea.


Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO). A portion (10%) of this site's ad revenues is donated to the AFIO. The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. OSINT News is always looking for different perspectives regarding the Intelligence Community- got a thought, article or comment you'd like to submit? Contact us on the SECURE CONTACT FORM