Sunday, July 21, 2013

GRASSROOTS MILITANTS POSE THREAT TO U.S.


This article is a synopsis of the Stratfor article “Boston Bombing Suspects: Grassroots Militants from Chechnya”. It is written with permission from Stratfor.

The identities of the suspects in the Boston Marathon bombing -- Chechen brothers Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, 19, and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26 -- appear tentatively to confirm several of Stratfor's suspicions. From this profile, the simple nature of the attack, their efforts to rob a convenience store and their lack of an escape plan, we can at least say at this point in time that they were what we refer to as grassroots militants. Typically being amateurs, such militants clearly still pose a significant threat.
 

Here’s Stratfor’s analysis: Just after 10 p.m. on April 18, the Tsarnaev brothers were identified after having robbed a convenience store in Cambridge, Mass., just three miles from Boston, hours earlier. A Massachusetts Institute of Technology police officer, who responded to the robbery, was shot and killed and found in his car by fellow responding officers. The two suspects later hijacked an SUV at gunpoint, releasing the driver unharmed. Authorities later caught up to the suspects, and a car chase ensued.

Just after midnight, the car chase ended with a gunfight in Watertown, Mass. The suspects reportedly threw explosive devices at police, though it is not yet confirmed what types of explosives allegedly were used. During the firefight, Tamerlan Tsarnaev was wounded, taken into custody and later reported dead. Some press reports suggest he may have been wearing some sort of suicide belt or vest. Dzhokhar escaped by driving the stolen SUV through the police barricade and remains at large. According to media reports, a third accomplice was detained earlier this morning by authorities and is being questioned.

According to The New York Times, the two men are from Chechnya. Their family also reportedly lived briefly in Makhachkala, the capital of Dagestan, before moving to the United States in 2002. Dzhokhar Tsarnaev's profile on VKontakte, a Russian social media website, said he attended school at the School No. 1 of Makhachkala, spoke English, Russian and Chechen and listed his worldview as Islam. A school administrator from the School No. 1 said the two suspects and their family had previously lived in Kyrgyzstan before moving to Dagestan.

Because they are grassroots actors, there is likely only a small chance that the authorities will discover a formal link between the suspects and a state sponsor or a professional terrorist group such as al Qaeda or one of its franchise groups. Any link will likely be ideological rather than operational, although it is possible that the two have attended some type of basic militant training abroad. Given what we have learned about the suspects and the nature of the improvised explosive devices they constructed, it is very likely that the authorities will find that the brothers had read and studied al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s Inspire Magazines.

This case also highlights Stratfor’s analysis that the jihadist threat now predominantly stems from grassroots operatives who live in the West rather than teams of highly trained operatives sent to the United States from overseas, like the team that executed the 9/11 attacks. This demonstrates how the jihadist threat has diminished in severity but broadened in scope in recent years -- a trend that Strafor’s analysts expect to continue.

There will always be plenty of soft targets in a free society, and it is incredibly easy to kill people, even for untrained operatives. In this case, the brothers conducted an attack that was within their capabilities rather than attempting something more grandiose that would require outside assistance -- and which could therefore have put them in jeopardy of running into a government informant as they sought help. It is thus important for citizens to practice good situational awareness and to serve as grassroots defenders against the grassroots threat.

 I agree with Stratfor’s call for citizens to “practice good situational awareness.” I wrote an article called “A Strategy ToPrevent Future Boston Marathon Bombings”. 

 
Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) and writes the online spy novel series "Corey Pearson- CIA Spymaster in the Caribbean".  The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. Contact him on the Secure Contact Form

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

STATE DEPT. UNDERESTIMATES IRAN'S LATIN AMERICAN PRESENCE

According to a Washington Post article, the U.S. is growing  concerned about the developing relationship between Iran and Argentina. After reading the transcript from a hearing before the Subcommittee On Counterterrorism And Intelligence, I agree with the gist of the article.

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Argentina's populist-socialist head of state Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, according to the Washington Post,  
has permitted Iran to penetrate its financial sector and utilize the nation as a terrorist introducing pad. Iranian reps have  access to Latin America's Reciprocal trade Zones, which run throughout the permeable borders that separate Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil. Iran has considerably improved its polite ties with Argentina and various other socialist nations, a step that permits Iranian authorities to distribute influence throughout the area. Under Kirchner, Argentina has started to export huge quantities of meals and agricultural items to feed its starving populace, which has actually suffered under Western sanctions. Little wonder why Iran recently opened a joint chamber of commerce in 2012 in Buenos Aires.

Exports from Argentina to Iran jumped from around $84 million in 2008 to some $1.2 billion in 2011, according to U.S. authorities. Argentina is Iran's 2nd biggest trading partner in the area. Tehran gained access to Latin America and has  developed an intricate "pipeline to relocate improper items all throughout the area," according to Joseph M. Humire, executive supervisor of the Center for a Secure Free Society. These Latin American trade areas assist Iran in washing cash and relocating individuals, military hardware, and various other items throughout the area, Humire stated.

Experts conclude that Iran has constructed a full-blown horror network of spies and senior military authorities throughout Latin America, as socialist nations such as Argentina reinforce ties with them. Iran signed more than 500 trade and polite arrangements with a handful of Latin American nations, contracts worth some $40 billion dollars.

Iranian authorities maintain 11 embassies and 17 cultural facilities throughout Latin America, according to U.S. authorities, and they are utilized as a base for Iran's Quds Force, which is tied to Hezbollah. These arrangements have actually permitted Iran to embed its diplomats and military-backed entrepreneurs throughout the area.

While Tehran declares to run genuine companies and embassies, Iranian representatives silently radicalize the native populaces and utilize their impact to acquire improper military hardware. Ironically, this specialist testimony comes simply a month after the State Department released a mainly classified report that concluded, "Iranian impact in Latin America and the Caribbean is winding down."

Legislators and specialists disagree with the State Department's conclusion, declaring that all offered proof shows that Iran's presence in the area has actually expanded significantly recently. "I seriously question the administration's judgment to [downplay] Iran's presence in your home," Rep. Jeff Duncan (R., S.C.) stated throughout the hearing, slamming the Obama White House for ignoring "the input of our foreign allies throughout the area."

Duncan suggested Iran may be "smuggling individuals, medicines, and tools into the U.S. due to our permeable southern border."

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Iran's access to the transport, mining, and shipping markets has "put a veil over Iran's military program" and recruitment, one expert stated. From Venezuela to Bolivia and various other socialist-oriented nations in the area, Iran has actually grown engineers, experts, and exclusive entrepreneurs who are associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Experts state that Iran "now [has] a military presence that is extraordinary in the area".

United States authorities have actually found that Iran is moneying a protection academy in Bolivia. The academy, which is training different Latin American forces, was officially inaugurated ins 2012 by Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi, according to the U.S. authorities, who approximate that around 50 to 300 Iranian fitness instructors are posted in Bolivia.

Others cautioned that Iran is rapidly developing a network that reaches nations surrounding North America. "You'll see that development is expanding and getting closer to our southern borders," explained Walid Phares, a counter- terrorism specialist and Fox News analyst, throughout the early morning press junket. 

Iran has actually performed a number of effective terrorist plots in the area going back to the 1980s. Senior Iranian authorities in 1994 assisted strategy and perform the harmful battle of the AMIA Jewish facility in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 
The AMIA attack is still under examination in Argentina, where sources state Kirchner's government has actually permitted Tehran to hijack the examination in an effort to comfy approximately the routine.
The Argentinian government restricted AMIA General Prosecutor Alberto Nisman from appearing long before Congress Tuesday to talk about Iran's expanding power in the area. Nisman has reported in the past that the "the AMIA battle did not make up a remote occasion" and needs to "be examined and comprehended as a section in a bigger series." An empty seat with a tag bearing Nisman's name was established in your house hearing space.
What bothers me is that there is a possibility that Iran could detonate a "super-dirty" radioactive bomb inside the U.S. or Israel, via its terrorist proxy Hezbollah. In addition to developing embassies and various other cultural facilities, Iran has actually begun mining operations to discover for uranium, the crucial in a nuclear tool, and various other minerals that can be utilized to construct tools, according to the American Foreign Policy Council's Berman. 
United States authorities figured out that Iran is ramping up its mining efforts by offering both technical and engineering services, generally in Venezuela and Bolivia.
Iran's influence in the region is not winding down; I could find no OSINT that indicates it is.
Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) and writes the online spy novel series "Corey Pearson- CIA Spymaster in the Caribbean".  The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. Contact him on the Secure Contact Form

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

EGYPT'S POPULATION EXPLOSION CAUSE OF UNREST

This post is from Stratfor's article "Egypt's Waning Influence and is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohammed Kamel Amr resigned Tuesday, becoming the most high-profile minister to step down since protests against the rule of President Mohammed Morsi began over the weekend. Amr's resignation came after the Egyptian military issued an ultimatum Monday, demanding that Morsi and the ruling Muslim Brotherhood start a dialogue with opposition members within 48 hours, or risk the military stepping in to impose a "political roadmap" on all parties. This move comes amid the latest in a series of political crises in Egypt since the ouster of former President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011.

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The political turmoil facing Egypt, its political class and its powerful military has become almost a given, with all sides turning to public displays of unrest and emotion as often as they do to the democratic process. And as Egypt's political system evolves, it is becoming clear that -- with the exception of a few critical issues, including Gaza, the Suez Canal and the Egyptian military's ability to secure both -- Western and regional governments are viewing Egypt's affinity for unrest with diminishing concern.

Egypt was once the political and religious lynchpin of the Sunni Arab world. Egyptian institutions such as the religious Al-Azhar University and the Islamism championed by the Muslim Brotherhood continue to have significant regional influence, but Egypt is far from being a contender for the role of Arab hegemon. Larger regional issues, such as the Syrian War and the Sunni push back that has placed a formerly ascendant Iran on the defensive, take priority over Egypt's political morass in the eyes of the United States and its Western allies, who have grown weary of intervening in the Middle East.

Egypt's geopolitical relevance will endure for quite some time, even if the country ceases to be a confident leader of the Sunni Arab world. The Suez Canal is and will remain a vital path for global shipping, and Egypt's proximity to the Gaza Strip, as well as its long-standing cease-fire with Israel, will influence Washington to maintain links with the Egyptian military, if not the government in Cairo. The Egyptian military is the primary guarantor of the security of both the Suez Canal and Egypt's border with Gaza. As long as the military maintains its position as the strongest pillar within the Egyptian state, the United States is unlikely to interfere with Egyptian affairs.

The Egyptian army shows no signs of faltering. Its stability is both a blessing and a curse; free from the meddling of stronger foreign actors, the military is becoming increasingly responsible -- and accountable -- for Egypt's continued domestic unrest. In the absence of Western support or intervention, regional actors such as Qatar, and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia and Libya, are helping to relieve some of the economic pressures facing the Egyptian state. No one, however, is offering an easy fix for Egypt's millennia-old economic and geographic challenges.

No one wants to see Egypt collapse, but no Western or regional actors are willing to step in and shoulder the burden of rebuilding the Egyptian state, either. And the ongoing stability and pervasiveness of the Egyptian military helps assuage foreign concerns that such a collapse might occur. The result is a domestic quagmire of competing political and sectarian interests, and an increasingly beleaguered Egyptian army forced to act as a referee among fractious competitors. Unable and unwilling to step in and establish military rule directly, the military's reliance upon and subsequent empowerment of various political and public forces mean that the current cycle of Egyptian politics -- elections, opposition, protest and unrest -- will not likely change in the near future.

Underlying this dynamic is a serious imbalance in the country's economy, with a growing population that far outweighs the desert country's resources. As Egypt's focus turns inward and its regional position falters, its economy will continue to decline even as its population keeps growing. In short, its larger problems will cease to be addressed even as its political situation continues to grab headlines.

Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) and writes the online spy novel series "Corey Pearson- CIA Spymaster in the Caribbean".  The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. Contact him on the Secure Contact Form